Q1 TRACKING AT 94.9% OF GUIDANCE

715 homes sold in Q1 so far, generating $274.1M revenue. Running at 22.0 homes/day — need ~24/day to hit $1B guidance.

Win rate holding at 79.1% with $46,407 avg profit per win. Total realized P&L: $8.4M.

⚠ 64 days left in Q1. Velocity needs to increase ~9% to hit guidance.

Kaz-Era Portfolio (Acquired Nov 2025+)

Sold

homes closed

Win Rate 95.3%

Avg Profit $43.2K

Total Realized +$1.9M

Still Listed

103

homes on market

Above Water 97.1% (100)

Underwater 2.9% (3)

With Price Cuts 35.0% (36)

Kaz-Era Net Position

+$2.9M

Realized Gains

+$6.8M

Unrealized (Above)

-$12.2K

Underwater Exposure

3 homes underwater Total exposure: -$12.2K

Location	Days	Underwater	Cuts	Status
Charlotte, NC	47	-$10.5K	2	Concern
Maricopa, AZ	15	-$1.6K	1	Watching
Stone Mountain, GA	18	-$77	1	Watching

Legacy Portfolio (Pre-Kaz)

Sold

276

homes closed

Win Rate 64.5%

Avg Profit $23.7K

Total Realized +$6.5M

Still Listed

661

homes on market

Above Water 71.3% (471)

Underwater 28.7% (190)

With Price Cuts 96.1% (635)

Legacy Exposure

-$5.1M

Underwater Exposure

Toxic Remaining

~17 wks

To Clear

Toxic Inventory Clearance

43 cleared 84 remaining

Clearing 5 homes/week → Zero by early May

Week 1: 89 → Week 2: 85 → Week 3: 84 → Week 4: 84

Daily Velocity

15.2

Homes/Day (7d)

$4.6M

Revenue/Day (7d)

$409M

Q1 Projected

$595M

Q1 Guidance

$119.7M revenue 20.1% of guidance • Tracking behind pace

Cohort Performance

Cohort	Sold	Win Rate	Margin	Avg Profit
New (<90d)	70	92.9%	10.7%	$41.9K
Mid (90-180d)	104	84.6%	10.0%	$36.9K
Old (180-365d)	100	53.0%	5.4%	$21.7K
Toxic (>365d)	43	30.2%	-4.1%	-$12.5K

The gradient is clear: newer cohorts outperform on every metric. This proves the strategy pivot is working.

Risk Monitoring

Geographic Risk

State	Inv	UW	Rate
FL	85	41	48.2%
GA	102	45	44.1%
NC	127	38	29.9%
TX	89	22	24.7%
AZ	59	12	20.3%

High (>40%) Medium Low (<25%)

Price Cut Severity

Portfolio	% Cut	Avg Below	3+ Cuts
Kaz-Era	35%	2.3%	1
Legacy	96%	11.8%	570

Legacy taking the pain. Kaz-era cuts are healthy price discovery.

Improving

✓ Toxic inventory down 5 homes (89 → 84)

✓ Legacy underwater down 8 homes (198 → 190)

✓ Underwater exposure improved $120K

Stable

— Kaz-era win rate holding (95.3%)

— New cohort margin steady (10.7%)

Watching

⚠ Kaz-era underwater +1 home (Charlotte added)

⚠ Daily velocity below target (15.2 vs 21 needed)

⚠ Data Transparency

Win rates reflect sold homes only. Homes still listed may lose money when sold.

Q1 2026: 715 sales (38.7% with P&L)
Win Rate: 79.1% (from 277 sales with P&L data)
Avg Profit: $46,407 | Total Realized: $8.4M

Data Sources:
• Sales velocity & revenue: Singularity Research (real-time)
• P&L metrics: Parcl Research (38.7% coverage)

Data as of Jan 26, 2026 | Unified dataset